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Premier League 2023/24


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Havent done a set of predictions for a while. To start with Ive got Sheff Utd, Luton and Bournemouth to get relegated at the end of the season. 

 

Luton 0-2 Tottenham

Burnley 0-1 Chelsea

Everton 2-0 Bournemouth

Fulham 1-1 Sheff Utd

Man Utd 2-0 Brentford

Crystal Palace 1-1 Nott'm Forest

 

Brighton 1-2 Liverpool

West Ham 1-1 Newcastle

Wolves 1-1 Aston Villa

Arsenal 1-2 Man City

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Roberto de Zerbi & BHA

Some tactics porn for those who with specialist tastes. (They know who they are.)

 

FOOTBALL

Sit deeper and give up possession – have Brighton been found out?

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have had plenty of success by luring opponents to press but, with other managers growing wise to their tactics, form has dipped

Hamzah Khalique-Loonat

Friday October 06 2023, 4.00pm, The Times

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brighton-conundrum-being-cracked-as-teams-resist-pressing-bait-bckzjd2gw

 

 

With a tactically revolutionary style, Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton & Hove Albion were the darlings of the Premier League last season, exposing pressing teams and devouring their defences.

However, in recent weeks, Brighton have come unstuck and results have turned, losing three and winning only one of their past five games in all competitions — shipping 13 goals in the process.

To understand why Brighton have struggled in recent weeks requires an appreciation of De Zerbi’s ideas and approach — notably an emphasis on “relational” play (where players are positioned in relation to one another, rather than according to strict positions), which is a counter to the pressing football favoured by many modern coaches.

 

Brighton bait their opponents into pressing by holding the ball in deep areas. By clustering team-mates around the ball, they outnumber the pressing players and create combinations to play through, exposing the space vacated by the pressing team.

It is a style that left high-pressing teams such as Liverpool floundering last season. It also prompted others, even Manchester City and Pep Guardiola, to take inspiration — the City goalkeeper, Ederson, has been baiting opponents into pressing him, in the manner of Brighton’s Jason Steele and Bart Verbruggen.

The problem for Brighton is that as their style has won friends and imitators, opponents have started to work on ways to combat it.

The simplest method is sitting deep and defending compactly. By ignoring Brighton’s pressing bait completely, a team can deprive them of the opportunity to play through a press and into space — as David Moyes’s West Ham United and Matías Almeyda’s AEK Athens did in their victories at the Amex Stadium this season.

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In their victory, West Ham completed 153 passes compared with Brighton’s 697. With only 22 per cent of possession and no intention to press high, West Ham denied Brighton the opportunity to create overloads to play through the press. With the exception of two headers, West Ham denied Brighton a single shot within 12 yards of goal.

By declining to press and encouraging Brighton forward so that De Zerbi’s team left spaces to counterattack into, the London club controlled the game and produced the best chances of the match, as reflected in the final scoreline (3-1 to West Ham) and the expected-goals tally (Brighton 1.5, West Ham 3).

 

Similarly, AEK had only 25 per cent possession in their 3-2 win in the Europa League last month, where they scored twice from set pieces and their winning goal came from direct football.

The blueprint to beat Brighton appeared to be set, until Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth attempted an audacious man-to-man press across the field. The idea was to force the ball back to the goalkeeper Verbruggen, and deprive him of short passing options, thereby keeping Brighton’s possession as far away from the Bournemouth goal as possible.

Below is an example of Bournemouth’s man-to-man press, as the ball moves into Verbruggen. The Dutch goalkeeper, unable to pass short, is forced to go long.

 

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When Verbruggen held possession, Bournemouth left themselves four-v-four in defence, but they were comfortable as the only way for the ’keeper to reach those players was with long balls, which the visiting defenders could contest aerially.

For most of the first half the tactic worked perfectly. Brighton barely progressed the ball, their forwards were isolated and managed only a couple of shots from long range before Bournemouth took the lead by pressing Verbruggen as he tried to play out from the back. Bournemouth ultimately lost 3-1, largely because of individual errors, but their tactics were effective for a good portion of the game.

The man-to-man press is a tactic fraught with risk — if a player mistimes their press or loses a duel, the pressing team becomes unbalanced and vulnerable to a counterattack. Once Bournemouth fell behind, they could no longer let Brighton hold possession freely.

Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea and Unai Emery’s Aston Villa adopted a third strategy: they pressed only once Brighton moved past the edge of their defensive third.

Chelsea’s defenders, as shown below, are not positioned on the halfway line, like a typical high-pressing team.

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More importantly, the space between the forward, Nicolas Jackson, and the deepest defenders, Levi Colwill and Axel Disasi, is roughly 25 yards. Chelsea are compact, and if Brighton play beyond the first line of their press, they are not able to slice through and run riot as they would against high-pressing teams that leave more space in behind.

Emery set his Villa team up to play with a narrow midfield four in a similarly compact shape but with a few tweaks. Pau Torres man-marked Danny Welbeck, while Moussa Diaby and Ollie Watkins shielded the midfield in a tight front two.

However, a passive press that begins only when Brighton’s players venture forward comes with a risk.

 

Brighton’s creative players can drop in to receive possession and clip passes over the defensive line — as Mahmoud Dahoud and Pascal Gross did against Marseille on Thursday, to supply Kaoru Mitoma and Ansu Fati.

 

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This mid-block tactic — where a team starts their pressing in the middle third of the pitch — is a staple of Emery’s. He used it last season, when Villa were one of only two teams (alongside Tottenham Hotspur) to beat De Zerbi’s Brighton twice.

In all three of their wins against Brighton under Emery, Villa had less possession (35, 41 and 39 per cent) than their opponents, but caught them on the counter and limited the opportunity to play through them by sitting in a tight mid-block. By managing where Brighton could play and hemming their possession sequences against the touchline, Villa were able to isolate their opponents and turn the ball over without opening themselves up.

Some of Brighton’s most notable defeats have come against sides that have happily surrendered possession and picked them off on the break. Brighton have lost four of the six league matches under De Zerbi in which they have had 72 per cent or more possession. Likewise, some of Brighton’s best wins have come against teams where managers have been wedded to either possession-dominant or pressing philosophies — not least a 3-0 evisceration of Liverpool in January.

Jürgen Klopp’s side, who Brighton face on Sunday, have moved away from a high press and now tend to allow their opponents’ centre backs to hold the ball, instead preferring to encourage a pass into midfield, where their pressing trap awaits. It could be a tactic that serves them well at the Amex this weekend.

Premier League

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