weebluedevil 1,239 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 We are obviously in a fantastic position in our group that all of us would have taken before the group began. However, it’s very tight and any of the teams are capable of taking point home or away from the others. There are a couple of very real scenarios where 3 points from our last 2 games may not be enough. If we lose in Rotterdam by a couple of goals and YB beat Porto at home by the same margin - both very possible scenarios - beating YB in the final game at Ibrox will not be enough if Feyenoord beat Porto by a single goal. Similarly, if we win in Rotterdam but lose to YB at Ibrox we could also go out if Porto won both their last 2 games by decent margins. Thankfully there are many more scenarios where 3 points from the last 2 games would be enough, but it makes me nervous and I really think we need at least a point from Feyenoord game to feel comfortable going into the last game. It would leave us all hollow if we didn’t make it through now. That said, I do have confidence in the team, albeit very quiet confidence - whatever that means... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie 8,570 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Was talking about this last night with another user and I have to say I'm pretty confident we can take at least four points from the final two games IF we play as we have done so far home and away in Europe under Gerrard. However, unlike previous games where it could be suggested they were effective free hits as expectations were low, now we should be looking to qualify so the pressure on the players is somewhat increased. I'm sure no-one would have it any different though. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
buster. 5,199 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 (edited) 31 minutes ago, weebluedevil said: We are obviously in a fantastic position in our group that all of us would have taken before the group began. However, it’s very tight and any of the teams are capable of taking point home or away from the others. There are a couple of very real scenarios where 3 points from our last 2 games may not be enough. If we lose in Rotterdam by a couple of goals and YB beat Porto at home by the same margin - both very possible scenarios - beating YB in the final game at Ibrox will not be enough if Feyenoord beat Porto by a single goal. Similarly, if we win in Rotterdam but lose to YB at Ibrox we could also go out if Porto won both their last 2 games by decent margins. Thankfully there are many more scenarios where 3 points from the last 2 games would be enough, but it makes me nervous and I really think we need at least a point from Feyenoord game to feel comfortable going into the last game. It would leave us all hollow if we didn’t make it through now. That said, I do have confidence in the team, albeit very quiet confidence - whatever that means... In the event of a three way tie, GD isn't the first criteria used to determine order. Quote There are a couple of very real scenarios where 3 points from our last 2 games may not be enough. If we lose in Rotterdam by a couple of goals and YB beat Porto at home by the same margin - both very possible scenarios - beating YB in the final game at Ibrox will not be enough if Feyenoord beat Porto by a single goal. Similarly, if we win in Rotterdam but lose to YB at Ibrox we could also go out if Porto won both their last 2 games by decent margins. In your 1st scenario I think we'd actually go through In the second, we'd be out and Porto would simply need to win, margin not important. ------------------ https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/60/88/40/2608840_DOWNLOAD.pdf Article 16 Equality of points – group stage 16.01 If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied in the order given to determine their rankings: a. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question; b. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question; c. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question; d. higher number of away goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question; e. if, after having applied criteria a) to d), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to d) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to l) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal; f. superior goal difference in all group matches; g. higher number of goals scored in all group matches; h. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches; i. higher number of wins in all group matches; j. higher number of away wins in all group matches; k. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points); l. higher club coefficient (see Annex D). Edited November 13, 2019 by buster. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedell 5,627 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 A draw between Porto and YB would mean a draw against Feynoord would see us through. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
compo 7,048 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Keep it simple for an older person, just win the next two matches. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briton 314 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Porto can't beat us on goal difference if I'm reading this right. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gunslinger 3,366 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 we want Porto to get some kind of result v YB. an 3 points and Porto finish behind us no matter what. That said a YB win means porto can't catch us no matter what. AS Briton says porto can't beat us on goal difference. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbr 1,256 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 I know it’s fun and all that , but can we not just wait till after the next game to see where we are at , this is a bit premature even for our standards . 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tannochsidebear 2,414 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 I tried working out a few permutations and there is no chance us, YB & Porto can all finish on the same points (would need to be 8 points) without us going through. We can finish on 10 points and be eliminated if the scoring in our remaining games goes against us in the head to heads with Feyenoord & YB. All very complicated, but if we get anything from Feyenoord, we will know exactly where we are (possibly qualified, possibly needing a win) going into our final home game. We would all take it when the draw was made i'm sure. 0 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
the gunslinger 3,366 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Tannochsidebear said: I tried working out a few permutations and there is no chance us, YB & Porto can all finish on the same points (would need to be 8 points) without us going through. We can finish on 10 points and be eliminated if the scoring in our remaining games goes against us in the head to heads with Feyenoord & YB. All very complicated, but if we get anything from Feyenoord, we will know exactly where we are (possibly qualified, possibly needing a win) going into our final home game. We would all take it when the draw was made i'm sure. that would require Feyenoord to win there remaining 2. possible but somewhat unlikely. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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