The SPFL Radar

[ranger_syntax 4,422]

It's your 'Moneyball' effect on football, innit. That works for baseball and with cricket too but I'm not sure it works as well with football, they're very different sports. I could be convinced Candeias is a more effective player than he sometimes looks, but anyone who watches Tav knows he goes to sleep at crosses when at the back post, no amount of pass completion/final third assists or whatever can measure that rather large defensive frailty he has.

 

Yes, this was my first thought.

 

What about aspects of play that are not measured.

Edited November 13, 2017 by ranger_syntax

[pete 2,499]

supplying Kris Boyd with a GPS vest must be one one of the biggest wastes of money in football.

[Rousseau 10,823]

That's the American influence....they have stats for EVERYTHING!!!

 

It can be very useful, but as is always the case, stats can be "manipulated" to show a certain view point ie is a player playing well or not - some figures will say "yes, had an outstanding game", others will say "no, terrible game".

 

I agree, but the best statisticians won't go out to be intentionally biased in that way. Any academic journal, for example, is biased, but that doesn't preclude us from deriving some benefit or value from it; we just have to be aware of any bias and context.

[calscot 0]

It's your 'Moneyball' effect on football, innit. That works for baseball and with cricket too but I'm not sure it works as well with football, they're very different sports.

 

I agree that for building a team it far less useful as each player's attributes are more dependent on the rest of the team. Things like baseball can be taken a bit more in isolation.

 

However, I still think it can be useful to keep your views on players more objective and informed - especially in the less showy aspects of their game.

 

Some metrics are better than others as a lot of the time is all about quantity and not quality, and you have to take that into account - a shot on target could be a trundler from 30 yards, or a close in reaction, wonder save from a well executed, bullet shot.

[calscot 0]

supplying Kris Boyd with a GPS vest must be one one of the biggest wastes of money in football.

 

But, it could give you ammunition to kick him up the backside with... Although you might be wondering if it's broken.

[Rousseau 10,823]

I agree that for building a team it far less useful as each player's attributes are more dependent on the rest of the team. Things like baseball can be taken a bit more in isolation.

 

However, I still think it can be useful to keep your views on players more objective and informed - especially in the less showy aspects of their game.

 

Some metrics are better than others as a lot of the time is all about quantity and not quality, and you have to take that into account - a shot on target could be a trundler from 30 yards, or a close in reaction, wonder save from a well executed, bullet shot.

 

That's where xG comes into it, which tries to measure the 'quality' of the shot. It's not perfect, but I think it's more objective than 'shots on target', as you suggest.

[JohnMc 2,801]

My issue with the statistics analysis in football is its inability to factor in the team aspect of football. In cricket or baseball you can measure the bowler and the batsman in isolation, they are less reliant on the other members of their team at that specific moment, although not totally unreliant.

 

Football is different. Take Tav, would he have better stats for example if he'd a player like Stevie Davis in front of him instead of Candeias? Yes, he would, but would that make him a better player?

 

In 2010 Kilmarnock sold Connor Sammon to Wigan for £600,000. Anyone who has seen Connor Sammon play would raise an eyebrow at that figure because to put it bluntly he's a pretty average journeyman striker. Sammon was in his third season at Killie having scored the grand total of 7 goals in 49 matches in the previous two seasons Sammon amazingly scored 18 goals from 27 appearances in his final season sealing his move south. So what happened, how did Sammon go from energetic dumpling to international player in one season? Well, Kilmarnock signed an alcoholic Finnish genius called Alexie Eremenko. Eremenko hates training, can't tackle and doesn't like running on the pitch, but he can turn like few players, has wonderful vision and can make a pass from almost any position on the pitch. With Eremenko playing Sammon in half a dozen times every game Sammon turned into a goal machine and Kilmarnock's bank manager had a smile on his face for the first time (and last) in years.

 

Connor Sammon scored a grand total of one goal in 43 appearances for Wigan. He's currently on loan at Partick Thistle where he mainly operates as a sub.

 

Now Sammon's stats were stunning for one season, but they didn't tell you the whole story.

 

I quite like stats and no doubt some of them are helpful, but they can be very misleading as well. Football is a team game and each player is very reliant on the players around him. One player's passing stats can be greatly improved if the players around him make themselves available to take a pass, but if he's forced to hoof it into the channels then his stats won't be as good, but that doesn't tell us if he's a better player or not. Likewise having someone who can get on the end of a cross greatly improves the likelihood of a full back or midfielder crossing the ball in the first place.

 

I think there are under-rated players out there, players who do a ton of work that's not always seen or appreciated by fans, and stats like distance covered and number passes can help with that. But the only way to judge a player is to see him play, in the flesh, against other players.

[JFK-1 1,693]

That's the American influence....they have stats for EVERYTHING!!!

 

It can be very useful, but as is always the case, stats can be "manipulated" to show a certain view point ie is a player playing well or not - some figures will say "yes, had an outstanding game", others will say "no, terrible game".

 

The Americans have stats for everything because their 'football' is so boring they need something to talk about due to the fact that most of the time absolutely nothing is happening. Some of them have tried to say to me that you should think of it as watching a chess game with humans instead of pieces.

 

My reply to that is chess is boring to watch too.

[Rousseau 10,823]

My issue with the statistics analysis in football is its inability to factor in the team aspect of football. In cricket or baseball you can measure the bowler and the batsman in isolation, they are less reliant on the other members of their team at that specific moment, although not totally unreliant.

 

Football is different. Take Tav, would he have better stats for example if he'd a player like Stevie Davis in front of him instead of Candeias? Yes, he would, but would that make him a better player?

 

In 2010 Kilmarnock sold Connor Sammon to Wigan for £600,000. Anyone who has seen Connor Sammon play would raise an eyebrow at that figure because to put it bluntly he's a pretty average journeyman striker. Sammon was in his third season at Killie having scored the grand total of 7 goals in 49 matches in the previous two seasons Sammon amazingly scored 18 goals from 27 appearances in his final season sealing his move south. So what happened, how did Sammon go from energetic dumpling to international player in one season? Well, Kilmarnock signed an alcoholic Finnish genius called Alexie Eremenko. Eremenko hates training, can't tackle and doesn't like running on the pitch, but he can turn like few players, has wonderful vision and can make a pass from almost any position on the pitch. With Eremenko playing Sammon in half a dozen times every game Sammon turned into a goal machine and Kilmarnock's bank manager had a smile on his face for the first time (and last) in years.

 

Connor Sammon scored a grand total of one goal in 43 appearances for Wigan. He's currently on loan at Partick Thistle where he mainly operates as a sub.

 

Now Sammon's stats were stunning for one season, but they didn't tell you the whole story.

 

I quite like stats and no doubt some of them are helpful, but they can be very misleading as well. Football is a team game and each player is very reliant on the players around him. One player's passing stats can be greatly improved if the players around him make themselves available to take a pass, but if he's forced to hoof it into the channels then his stats won't be as good, but that doesn't tell us if he's a better player or not. Likewise having someone who can get on the end of a cross greatly improves the likelihood of a full back or midfielder crossing the ball in the first place.

 

I think there are under-rated players out there, players who do a ton of work that's not always seen or appreciated by fans, and stats like distance covered and number passes can help with that. But the only way to judge a player is to see him play, in the flesh, against other players.

 

I completely agree about the team aspect of football; some things stats can't measure. Although, Pass Maps illustrate the links between players -- but again, context must be taken into account, because defenders will pass between themselves a lot more than midfielders etc..

 

I don't agree with the Tavernier example, as the stats he's being measured by are individual; teammates don't have an influence. Some will, but the majority -- and certainly those used in the above radar, IMO -- do not.

 

Yes, Sammon is p***. I doubt any stats were used by Wigan when they bought him! Stats are not just measured season-by-season, they are cumulative. Any cursory glance at his scoring record will prove he's not a great goal-scorer -- excepting that one season with Eremenko, as you stated. Looking at more in-depth stats -- not just goals-scored --, and being aware of the context would've shown quite clearly that it was a one-season wonder. Your example actually shows how not to use stats. I agree with the premise, though, that individual stats don't show everything.

 

Again, it's being aware of the context. One single stat, in one game or one season in isolation, tells you very little. The cumulative stats, over several seasons, will tell you a lot.

 

(This is not aimed at you, but I don't agree with this view that statisticians are hunched round a YouTube clip counting passes etc., or that scouts need to watch players in the flesh -- watching is useful, of course it is. There are tactical cams -- even SKY provide them on some games -- whereby the whole pitch is seen; you can see how a player interacts, how he moves etc., several times, over and over. Surely that provides much more information than watching a player once? Seeing a guy in the flesh is not the be-all and end-all.)

Edited November 14, 2017 by Rousseau

[Gonzo79 15,299]

I'm surprised no one has posted a pic of Statto from Fantasy Football yet.