Malmo vs Ra Sellick

[craig 5,199]

No...? The poorer our coefficient, the more difficult it gets, the more challenging teams we face, and the far more unlikely it is for us to ever reach the group stage.

 

I understand the coefficient rationale. However, I simply cannot get my head around us being prepared to see Celtic gain a further 15-20 million quid on us, just so that we can be helped minimally by their co-efficient points.

 

I understands that it will be more challenging for us, but as they get dumped out and see their annual points drop so too will it become more difficult for them. When we are back in the SPFL it should be a two horse race again - and they will have a head start at least financially. So if they get dumped out of Europe with little coefficient points I will be happy enough as I know it makes their task more difficult to qualify for the group stages too.

 

Something else we haven't considered here is that they could, potentially, be looking at a 30-40 million financial advantage - why ? Because if they qualified for the CL and got a bunch of co-efficient points then their entry to the group stages NEXT season would be easier (and we know they have the league sewn up already).

 

The question we have to ask ourselves is : Do we really want them to be getting significant co-efficient points this season by being in the CL group stages (which also brings 20 million quid with it), which may give them an easier route into next season's CL group stages and a further 20 million..... all because Rangers get a minimal benefit to their co-efficient points ?

 

For me the answer is no. I would be happy if they get dumped before even making the Europa League group stages. Their points don't help us a great deal and our lack of European participation over the last 3 years means we will have a difficult entry route when we do eventually qualify for Europe again - so Celtic's points wont make that task a great deal easier anyway - I would prefer to see us and them closer financially, which would give us a better opportunity at winning the league and getting a chance at CL qualification, even though the hurdles we would have to get to the group stages would be difficult.

[BrahimHemdani 1]

AFAIK, opponents and the points they "yield" are differently ranked, acccording to their or their country's standing in the list. Thus, beating a German 3th placed team will yield more than beating the champions of Gibraltar, Bulgaria and even Sweden. .

 

Not correct, it's the same points whoever you play: 2 for a win and 1 for a draw, and half in the qualifiers.

[BrahimHemdani 1]

My head says this is crap for Scottish football, my heart says GIRFUY!!

 

On a more serious note: perhaps BH can enlighten me, would it not be better for us to end up playing several poor teams (because of the poor Co-efficient) and beating most of them, rather than playing fewer games? In other words, would it not be better for our Co-efficient to win 1st, 2nd, 3rd qualifying round matches, rather than losing 1 play-off game?

 

Not sure I fully understand this point Rousseau.

 

I think what you mean is that if Scotland has a better coefficient and we start higher in the qualifiers and lose the first game that is no good, so it might be better for taking things as they stand and having a chance of beating some teams in the early rounds and building up points?

 

In theory YES, albeit it's only 1 point for a win in the qualifiers.

 

However as per #39 the issue is that our own non-existent coefficient means that we will be up against teams from respectable footballing countries like Norway, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia or worse still rising nations like Azerbaijan and Khazekstan. We will not be playing playing minnows from Malta (and look at the hard time Birkirkara gave West Ham) San Marino or the Faroes etc because they'll be on similar points/seedings to us.

[calscot 0]

My head says this is crap for Scottish football, my heart says GIRFUY!!

 

On a more serious note: perhaps BH can enlighten me, would it not be better for us to end up playing several poor teams (because of the poor Co-efficient) and beating most of them, rather than playing fewer games? In other words, would it not be better for our Co-efficient to win 1st, 2nd, 3rd qualifying round matches, rather than losing 1 play-off game?

 

After having a look at that current rules, the answer to that is no, not any more.

 

http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/news/newsid=1592815.html

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/calc.html

 

 

The "team ranking" doesn't get any direct points for winning or drawing in the qualifying rounds. You only get points for going out (I know it sounds odd) or qualifying for the group stage.

 

CL:

Going out in the 1st round (unlikely we'll be in that) is 0.5pts.

Going out in the 2nd round is 1pt

Going out in the 3rd round means no points but entry into EL play offs (but going out here is 1.5pts see below)

Going out in the 4th round means no points but entry into EL (but qualification to this give 2pts see below)

Group qualification 4pts

Group win 2pts

Group draw 1pt

Round 16 qualification 4pts

Then 1pt per round to final

 

EL

Out in 1st - 0.25pts

Out in 2nd - 0.5pts

Out in 3rd - 1pt

Out in play offs - 1.5pts

Qualification to group - 2pts (This is where Celtic are with 2pts currently)

Group win 2pts

Group draw 1pt

1 point for entry into each subsequent round

 

So you only get points for wins and draws in the group stages.

 

UEFA say nothing about extra points for winning the competition so it seems the two finalists with the same points in the groups get the same points whether they win or lose.

 

Country points are different and seem to count 1pt/0.5pt for win/draw in qualifiers and 2pt/1pt thereafter, elimination points removed, while some bonus points count (like 4pts for CL qualification) - although this is not 100% clear on either site. Need to look further.

Edited August 26, 2015 by calscot

[BrahimHemdani 1]

 

 

Two things to remember about Celtic going out - as BH says, they may actually gain more points in the EL than the CL, and remember we only get 5% of the Celtic points = 20% / 4 teams. So if they miraculously do massively well, get to the final and gain say about 20 more points, that would put us up one point to about 286th...

 

So their coefficient points are really not much to worry about. Send them all the ill will you like.

 

This is correct in respect of the team points which determine our seeding but not in respect of the country points which determine where Scottish teams start in the qualifiers.

 

As per # 27 the country points are determined by dividing the total points earned by all the teams in the particular country by the number of teams, the 20% only then applies to the team points.

 

So if Celtic were to miraculously gain 20 points and nothing else changes, it would move Scotland up to joint 18th and 17th means that the team that finishes second in the SPL would start in EL Q2.

 

Not a vast difference and unlikely as well, but a difference nonetheless.

 

It is also fair to say that a better seeding does not necessarilly mean you are a better team as Celtic can attest! It may mean you were better at some point or various points in the past 5 years but not now.

Edited August 26, 2015 by BrahimHemdani

[BrahimHemdani 1]

After having a look at that current rules, the answer to that is no, not any more.

 

http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/news/newsid=1592815.html

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/calc.html

 

 

The "team ranking" doesn't get any direct points for winning or drawing in the qualifying rounds. You only get points for going out (I know it sounds odd) or qualifying for the group stage.

 

CL:

Going out in the 1st round (unlikely we'll be in that) is 0.5pts.

Going out in the 2nd round is 1pt

Going out in the 3rd round means no points but entry into EL play offs (but going out here is 1.5pts see below)

Going out in the 4th round means no points but entry into EL (but qualification to this give 2pts see below)

Group qualification 4pts

Group win 2pts

Group draw 1pt

Round 16 qualification 4pts

Then 1pt per round to final

 

EL

Out in 1st - 0.25pts

Out in 2nd - 0.5pts

Out in 3rd - 1pt

Out in play offs - 1.5pts

Qualification to group - 2pts (This is where Celtic are with 2pts currently)

Group win 2pts

Group draw 1pt

1 point for entry into each subsequent round

 

So you only get points for wins and draws in the group stages.

 

UEFA say nothing about extra points for winning the competition so it seems the two finalists with the same points in the groups get the same points whether they win or lose.

 

Country points are different and seem to count 1pt/0.5pt for win/draw in qualifiers and 2pt/1pt thereafter, elimination points removed, while some bonus points count (like 4pts for CL qualification) - although this is not 100% clear on either site. Need to look further.

 

I think you are correct here, the points a team collects in the qualifiers go towards the country ranking but not the team's coefficient. However a similar system applies as you have detailed.

 

So to my mind Rousseau is still correct because the more games you win, or the further you go before being knocked out in the qualifiers the more team points you get; but he is also wrong because our minute points total will put us up against teams with much higher coefficients, although that doesn't necessarily mean they will be better teams.

 

Like you I'll look at this in more detail when I have more time.

[BrahimHemdani 1]

I understand the coefficient rationale. However, I simply cannot get my head around us being prepared to see Celtic gain a further 15-20 million quid on us, just so that we can be helped minimally by their co-efficient points.

 

I understands that it will be more challenging for us, but as they get dumped out and see their annual points drop so too will it become more difficult for them. When we are back in the SPFL it should be a two horse race again - and they will have a head start at least financially. So if they get dumped out of Europe with little coefficient points I will be happy enough as I know it makes their task more difficult to qualify for the group stages too.

 

Something else we haven't considered here is that they could, potentially, be looking at a 30-40 million financial advantage - why ? Because if they qualified for the CL and got a bunch of co-efficient points then their entry to the group stages NEXT season would be easier (and we know they have the league sewn up already).

 

The question we have to ask ourselves is : Do we really want them to be getting significant co-efficient points this season by being in the CL group stages (which also brings 20 million quid with it), which may give them an easier route into next season's CL group stages and a further 20 million..... all because Rangers get a minimal benefit to their co-efficient points ?

 

For me the answer is no. I would be happy if they get dumped before even making the Europa League group stages. Their points don't help us a great deal and our lack of European participation over the last 3 years means we will have a difficult entry route when we do eventually qualify for Europe again - so Celtic's points wont make that task a great deal easier anyway - I would prefer to see us and them closer financially, which would give us a better opportunity at winning the league and getting a chance at CL qualification, even though the hurdles we would have to get to the group stages would be difficult.

 

Don't disagree with much of this, though it's a different argument.

 

However, Celtic will likely win more points for Scotland and themselves in the EL than CL, I'm sure you would agree.

[calscot 0]

Just realised that Celtic can only accumulate at maximum of 17 more points if they win all their group games and get to the final so can only add up to 0.875 pts to our coefficient.

 

For this season that unlikely event would move us from 263 to 231. Which wouldn't make too much odds if we won the SC and qualified for the EL. I think in either case we'd be seeded for the first round, and probably not seeded for the next, but it could have a small chance of swaying things in round 2, which could bring us the likes of West Ham.

 

So while it wouldn't affect us much in the CL, there is a slim chance it could affects us in the EL - and that is only with a maximum point scenario for Celtic.

[BrahimHemdani 1]

Just realised that Celtic can only accumulate at maximum of 17 more points if they win all their group games and get to the final so can only add up to 0.875 pts to our coefficient.

 

For this season that unlikely event would move us from 263 to 231. Which wouldn't make too much odds if we won the SC and qualified for the EL. I think in either case we'd be seeded for the first round, and probably not seeded for the next, but it could have a small chance of swaying things in round 2, which could bring us the likes of West Ham.

 

So while it wouldn't affect us much in the CL, there is a slim chance it could affects us in the EL - and that is only with a maximum point scenario for Celtic.

 

I would think 6 group matches, then last 32, last 16, last 8, last 4 and final equals 15 matches so 30 points possible?

[calscot 0]

This is correct in respect of the team points which determine our seeding but not in respect of the country points which determine where Scottish teams start in the qualifiers.

 

But as said, this is not that relevant for the CL except that we could play earlier, but it should be against teams we can beat. I'd much rather rely on us beating teams we should be beating, than relying on Celtic giving us a by into the next round. It's about banana skins, not the ambition to be good in Europe.

 

As per # the country points are determined by dividing the total points earned by all the teams in the particular country by the number of teams, the 20% only then applies to the team points.

 

So if Celtic were to miraculously gain 20 points and nothing else changes, it would move Scotland up to joint 18th and 17th means that the team that finishes second in the SPL would start in EL Q2.

 

That may be but that would also give them more money, more allure to players and more confidence to win the league again with us being second place - which is only where we "benefit" anyway. The full impact of that is negative to me. We'd be seeded for EL1 in any case and and so my point above kicks in.

 

I'd personally rather have more chance of beating a weaker Celtic in the league, but have to negotiate a round we should win anyway, than for them to be successful and give us a by to the next round. Also with the bonus of them being less happy.

 

Not a vast difference and unlikely as well, but a difference nonetheless.

 

It is also fair to say that a better seeding does not necessarilly mean you are a better team as Celtic can attest! It may mean you were better at some point or various points in the past 5 years but not now.

 

Agree with that although the chances of a drawing better team are likely to be higher with a higher seeding. At the lower end of the seedings, you're right, it could just mean one reasonably good run 4 years ago.