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The first two years of the American Civil War saw the Confederates win most of the battles, but continue to slowly lose the war. They benefitted from consistency of selection in General Officers, Robert E Lee was the very man to command the Army of Nothern Virginia. The Union had utilised several GOCs in the same period. Despite the Army of the Potomac being almost twice the size of Lee's command, McDowell, McClellan, Meade, Hooker, .... et al could not bring superiority to bear. President Lincoln was asked why he appointed and subsequently dismissed so many GOCs? Old Abe outlined an objective appreciation of the situation, the Union possessed four times as many men in the field, similar dominance in armaments, a massive superiority in production, and several times capacity in railways and logistics. He concluded by saying, "I am searching for a General that can do the arithmetic". He found him in Ulysses S Grant and the end game was inevitable. The wisdom of Abe ie 'doing the arithmetic' is something all parties in the on going Rangers crisis, could benefit from. If we accept the club sold 38,000 season tickets last season, what will the break down of this coming season's briefs be? Let's say the submission date is extended again, beyond this Friday. Would 15,000 renewals be a reasonable assumption? Given the UoF, Blue Order, Union Bears, ... etc have subscribed to the Dave King Trust, can we expect 5,000 to sign up to that perception of progression? The residual is 18,000, the biggest grouping and their decision might be based on style of football, prefer the option of game by game attendance, have had enough, ..... etc. I know other Gersnetters will have differing views on the numbers allocated to each grouping but I think we should recognise the three groupings. Weighting the random variables in the equation will be coloured by preferred prejudice, but we should attempt to be objective. Can either the Board or Dave King do the arithmetic?

GEORGIOS Samaras struck a 
discordant note on a day of 
celebration for Celtic when he claimed he has been forced out of the club. The Greek international was in tears on the Celtic Park pitch yesterday after scoring the second goal in a 3-1 win for the champions against Dundee United before they received the Premiership trophy. It was widely anticipated beforehand that it would be Samaras’ last appearance for Celtic following months of speculation over whether he would sign a new contract when his existing deal expires next month. But, in a startling interview during the post-match celebrations, Samaras insisted he had wanted to stay at the club all along and was only departing because of Celtic chief executive Peter Lawwell’s failure to offer him a new deal. “I’m leaving, that’s for sure, but it was not my decision,” Samaras told BBC Scotland. “I never had an offer from the club. I never had an offer from Peter Lawwell. I’ve been seven years at the club and I’d have loved to stay. I had a chat with the manager. He would have loved me to stay and I was happy to stay, but me and the gaffer don’t make the decisions – there are people higher up. I’ve not spoken to any other club. I was waiting to the end to see if they offered me anything, but that is the end. “We are the champions and that’s what counts in the end. I am very happy for my team-mates and the coaching staff and wish them all the best.” The 29-year-old joined Celtic, initially on loan, from Manchester City in January 2008. He scored 74 goals in 252 appearances for the club, winning seven major honours. Although he often divided opinion among the Celtic support, he was highly valued by Celtic manager Neil Lennon and was often especially effective in the Champions League where he scored ten goals. Samaras appeared as a second-half substitute against United, receiving a warm ovation from the home fans. He scored his 11th goal of the season from the penalty spot after regular spot-kick taker Kris Commons handed him the ball. Lennon, clearly unaware of Samaras’ comments when he conducted his own post-match media conference, indicated he felt the player was leaving through his own choosing. “I’d imagine his mind is made up,” he said. “I wouldn’t have thought there would be any negotiations. If there are any to be done, it would be between his advisor and Peter. He’s going to join up with the Greek World Cup squad pretty soon, so I don’t know if I’ll have a chance to see him or not. It was a nice touch from Kris to give Sami the opportunity to say goodbye properly. I don’t think it’s any big secret now that it doesn’t look like he is going to be here next season. So if he does go, he goes with the best wishes of the backroom team and the players.” http://www.scotsman.com/sport/football/spfl/georgios-samaras-claims-celtic-forced-him-out-1-3407308

Glasgow giants came within a whisker of reaching the inaugural Champions League final, missing out in somewhat controversial circumstances. A world away from their recent troubles, the 1992/93 season saw Rangers just one game away from the final of European club football's showpiece event. It was the first year in which the old European Cup had been rebranded the 'Champions League' and, in those days, it truly was restricted to domestic champions. The format saw the final eight clubs split into two groups of four, with the top teams in each mini-league qualifying for the final. Going into the final game, Rangers were level on points with Marseille. With current manager Ally McCoist then leading the Gers front line, a battle-hardened Rangers team were agonisingly pipped at the post, but not without controversy. Marseille went on to win the final 1-0, beating a brilliant AC Milan side in Munich, becoming the first French team to lift a European trophy in the process. Soon after the victory, however, it emerged that the club and their president Bernard Tapie had fixed a French league match involving Marseille six days before the final, allowing them to focus on the Milan game without fear of over-exerting themselves. The French side were subsequently stripped of their league crown, relegated to the second tier of French football and banned from the following year's Champions League, as well as the World Club Cup match in Tokyo (Milan took their place, losing to Sao Paolo). But they were not stripped of their Champions League win, despite suspicion being cast on the legitimacy of their European exploits, too. Rangers striker Mark Hateley has since claimed he was offered cash not to play against Marseille in the penultimate group match, when a win would have seen the Scottish side top the group with one game left. "It was a friend of a friend, who had got in touch via certain routes, basically asking me not to play," claimed Hateley. "He was not an agent I knew, but another agent had given him the number. It was a French-speaking person, offering me large sums of money not to play against Marseille." In the event, Hateley was banned from the match in Marseille after being sent off in the previous game, a 2-1 home win against Club Brugge. "I knew that something had gone off there," said Hateley. "It was a bitter pill to swallow." That same night, Marseille had increased their goal difference significantly by beating CSKA Moscow 6-0. It was a surprise scoreline, considering the Russians had earlier eliminated reigning European Cup holders Barcelona and drawn their home match with Marseille 1-1. The CSKA coach later made allegations that his players had been "got at", before withdrawing the claim, while there was also talk of drinks being spiked. Rangers bounced back from the disappointment of missing out on Munich by clinching a domestic treble, while their fans can look back on their Champions League adventure with pride, as well as a sense of what could have been. Two decades later, talkSPORT relives each round of the club's famous European journey... Full article below Read more at http://talksport.com/magazine/features/130424/robbed-why-rangers-could-have-been-first-champions-league-winners-195971#CKISL3cUclVoD4ei.99

Another week, another court appearance, another gut wrenching series of unfortunate events. Welcome to our world, Oscar Pistorius. In poor taste, of course, since no-one that we know of has died because of this shambling wreckage currently impersonating our club. Even so, just as in the OJ Simpson case and just as with Oscar, sides are being taken and battle lines drawn up. As a completely uninformed and lonely outsider with no inside info at all, it's just plain depressing. Amazing what a difference a week makes - last Tuesday, I was sitting in the garden with sun cream on, this week the only use I'd have for the lotion is to hold the shiny orange bottle in front of me as a guide through the gloom. Last week, hopes were high Dave would ride to the rescue, this week, the Man Who Would Be King revealed his plan for increasing pressure on the board this week, a pledge scheme which is, presumably, intended more to demonstrate the level of power over the club's income streams that Camp King possess rather than actually force a result; posters have pointed out already the slim chance of the present lot actually handing over securities in exchange for ST cash. If this is a game of chicken, I think King will lose, because unlike the Kelly family when Timothy was at death's door, the people running our club couldn't give a toss whether their name is forever mud on the streets of Glasgow (or, in fairness to all, Fraserburgh or Berlin). They won't blink because they don't care if the outcome is catastrophe: that unpleasant fact, which incidentally ought to help us decide whether they are fit for purpose or not, gives them an advantage in any poker game. Speaking of Timothy...he's been invoked a few times during this saga, usually along the lines of 'if only Rangers had a Fergus McCann figure'. Last week saw a cacophony of media types berate King for not just spending his money and getting it over and done with; curious, really, considering that (a) he was apparently offered a controlling interest for approximately £6m, quite a saving on the 70p a share deal he was offered a year ago - it seems holding out for a good deal can be advantageous. It's also curious because (b) these same media types were only a few weeks ago lauding Fergus McCann to the skies on the anniversary of his bailout of the dying Timothy, berating fans who booed him at cetlc Park and castigating the journos who mocked him. And now, they do exactly the same to a similar figure across the city. Whether King is tyre kicking or driving a good deal I have no idea. Hopefully every penny he's saved as yet will go into Rangers because by heck, the club will need his money. While I can see that people are fed up with little detail and much bluster, the lesson history certainly suggests deciding the issue in advance can lead to subsequently looking daft. Telling someone else to spend their money is never a position which can be defended: we simply don't know enough facts. We don't know if Rangers, like the Stones sing, are 'gonna be mine', his or theirs; with King, all we can do is hope he either does or doesn't come through. depending on your personal preference. I suppose it indicates how far we've come (or gone?) socially that instead of a toff whacking a peasant on the head and loudly crawing 'you there! make my mark, you beast!' we now grab the rich person and yell 'Haw, you! Get yer waalet oot!' But really the main impression is of people just talking for the sake of making a noise: I'm uncomfortably aware how close to the bone this criticism is! As Mick says, it's just sad, sad, sad, coming on top of years of sadly depressing viewing all round in football. Other sports don't seem to be so institutionally useless as football is, here and elsewhere. The owner of the LA Clippers basketball team makes a racist comment and is immediately forced to sell by his fellow owners: just imagine that level of corporate accountability here! We can but pray the suspiciously Scottish-sounding Donald Sterling doesn't fancy investing his dollars in our club; there is a limit to the number of bad publicity one team can withstand. All I can hope is that , when the dust eventually settles, people aren't too bitter. While there are probably some people in your Rangers life you'd be glad never to talk to again, life is too short for grudges. Like the seemingly infinite number of ants who are apparently holding a month long sports day under my kitchen window, the highlight of which is the 'climb in Steely's windae and run aboot the worktops avoiding his crushing thumb' event, we'll need to show a level of patience and stoicism last seen when Seneca was penning his dramas. Tally-ho!

via @Rangers_Official Now that the season is over, this is a good time for me to speak to you directly as part of our ongoing Ready To Listen fan engagement programme. In order to do so I will be answering questions from supporters today in a Twitter Q&A on our official club account. You can tweet your questions directly to me on @RFC_Official using the hashtag #ReadyToListen between 1pm and 2pm. I will answer as many questions from supporters within the hour and look forward to speaking with as many fans as I can. Graham Wallace, Chief Executive Officer.

Wallace about to come under greater scrutiny re assets. Also, his man Tyrrell speaking to BBC behind McCoist's back. Today's Sun back page a deliberate attempt by sports editor Ian king - been called by Wallace - to discredit McCoist. Hardly subtle Ian. Put on twitter by someone who has been very insightful recently.

By mutual consent. Oh dear! Striker Kenny Miller moves on May 4, 2014 VANCOUVER, BC – Vancouver Whitecaps FC announced today that the club has parted ways with striker Kenny Miller. The club and Miller have mutually agreed to a contract termination. “We are thankful for the contributions Kenny made both on and off the pitch during his time in Vancouver,” said Whitecaps FC head coach Carl Robinson. "He has been a great role model, a constant professional, and someone who I consider a very good friend. We wish him and his family all the best.” Miller, 34, joined Whitecaps FC in June 2012 and during his time with the club the native of Edinburgh, Scotland, made 45 appearances in all competitions, registering 13 goals and adding three assists. Conference call audio from head coach Carl Robinson and Kenny Miller will be posted on whitecapsfc.com this afternoon.

Hi there, first post, great site. I read lots of blogs etc and this is the best one in Scotland by a distance. If Rangers FC cannot continue as a going concern, in the event of the Dave King faction starving the board out, what happens? How does Rangers International deal with this?

THOSE Rangers supporters who have so far not renewed their season tickets for next season are currently facing some stark choices. Do they pledge their cash to Ibrox 1972 Ltd, the company launched by the Union of Fans group this week, and hope security will be granted over the stadium? Or do they give their money direct to the club as usual and book their seats for home games in the SPFL Championship in the 2014/15 campaign? Alternatively, they can sit back and see how the stand-off develops during the summer months before deciding how to proceed. What the Light Blues fans do, and in what sort of numbers, will determine the short-term future of the troubled Glasgow club. There is certainly backing for the scheme to withhold cash in the company that has former director Dave King and club legend Richard Gough as trustees. That is despite the fact the Rangers board stated once again this week that it "has no intention of granting security over Ibrox to anybody". Many fans were alarmed when it emerged that both Edmiston House and the Albion car parking facilities had been used as security for two loans of £1.5million earlier this year. And there are serious fears that institutional investors, who have seen the share price tumble since the IPO in 2012, may seek to maximise the club's assets in future. George Thomson, a law student from Paisley who has been a season ticket holder for 10 years, is one of those who will be putting his money into Ibrox 1972 Ltd. He said: "I think there comes a point where you have to say: 'Enough is enough.' "And this, for me, is that point. I will be withholding my season ticket money from the club. "I am unhappy at how the club is being run and have no faith in this board. I think we need change at the top in order to move on as a club and I would like to see Dave King involved. "He is a Rangers fan and has money that he is prepared to invest that could make a real difference to us. How many of the current directors or investors can say that?" Yet, there are also many supporters who are unsettled by the path being taken by King and the Union of Fans and the implications it may have for Rangers. David Somers, the club chairman, has stated there would be a serious doubt over the Govan club's ability to continue as a going concern if fans withheld their cash. James Clark-Dick, a retired quantity surveyor from Uddingston who has been a season ticket holder at Ibrox for nearly 30 years, is against the plan. He will be renewing the three season tickets he has in the Copland Road Stand - he attends every home game with his wife and daughter - and believes he is in a "silent majority". He feels that withholding money from Rangers in the coming weeks could actually help to bring about the eventuality that King and the Union of Fans are hoping to avoid. "Withholding season ticket money from the club this summer until security is granted over Ibrox seems like a ludicrous idea to me," he said. "I don't think it is the right way to go. "My worry is that if you push the shareholders enough then that (utilising the club assets) is just exactly what they might do. It might be what they have to do." The 63-year-old feels there are many Rangers fans like him whose views are not being represented by the supporters' organisations which comprise the Union of Fans. "I have met and spoken to Chris Graham (the Union of Fans spokesman) on a few occasions in the past and he came across well," he said. "But Chris and others like him are described as fans' representatives. Well, I am a fan and I don't have a representative." Given the gross mismanagement of previous regimes at Rangers, Mr Clark-Dick admitted he was "cautious" about the current custodians of the club. However, he also has serious misgivings about South Africa-based businessman King getting involved and the company that he has set up. He said: "I'm not pro-board and I'm not anti-board. I'm neither. I'm pro-Rangers. And I don't think this idea to withhold season ticket money is a great idea. "If it hadn't been for this campaign then I think we would have been all right. And apart from this season ticket fund, I don't know what plan Dave King has for the club. "Everybody has criticised the Rangers review. But what more did people expect? You are only ever going to get the bare bones of a business plan in a review. "I have been a shareholder for 30 years. The last batch of shares I bought were the fourth lot I have acquired. And the review is the most information I have had out of Rangers during that time. "They detailed exactly where the £67million went. They showed that £26m was used up in one-off costs. "That is the most clarity we have had." What the future holds for Rangers, though, will remain shrouded in uncertainty until it emerges how many supporters have renewed season tickets and how many have withheld. At the moment, it is too close to call. http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/rangers/rangers-fans-divided-by-loyalties-162650n.24161559

........and tells how boss kept his wife's miscarriage from him. HUGHES admitted his relationship with Big Jock was strained as he unveiled his autobiography at their spiritual home of Celtic Park. JOCK STEIN is a legend to Celtic and Scotland fans. The former boss is held in reverence at Celtic Park and his statue towers over the stadium’s main approach. But one of Stein’s own players, John Hughes, has launched a bitter attack on the dugout giant. Hughes claims: * Stein kept news of Yogi’s wife’s miscarriage a secret from him. * Forced him out of Celtic at the peak of his career. * Responded to the striker’s pay rise request by threatening to cut his wages. Hughes yesterday opened up about the legendary gaffer as he unveiled his autobiography at their spiritual home of Celtic Park. There are plenty of golden memories from his time at the club he still holds close to his heart after netting 116 goals in 255 appearances for the Hoops. But he admits his relationship with Big Jock was strained. Hughes said: “He was a fox. We were on a post-season tour to America in 1966 and my first wife Mary was pregnant at the time. I used to phone home every five or six days. “Then I bumped into the sports reporter Ken Gallacher one morning and he said, ‘Sorry to hear your news’. I didn’t know what he was talking about and he was the one who told me Mary had had a miscarriage four days earlier. “Jock knew but he hadn’t told me so make your own mind up about that.” In the book he talks in depth about the secret, saying: “I met up with Jock to confront him about it and he didn’t even blink. He replied, ‘Ach, what could you do about it anyway? You’re here and she’s there’. “I was stunned, speechless. I waited for my head to clear before I said, ‘You knew and you didn’t think it was right to me let me know? My wife losing a baby? Didn’t you think that was important?’ “He said, ‘Oh sort it out when you get home’. It was such a flippant throwaway remark. “I glared at him before saying, ‘Listen boss that’s ridiculous. You’re bang out of order’. I could see it wasn’t any of his concern.” Hughes claims it wasn’t the only time he was kept in the dark by the manager. He is aggrieved about his exit from Celtic in 1971 and claims Stein railroaded him into signing for Crystal Palace. He added: “I’m a Celtic guy and didn’t want to leave Celtic. “Ken Gallacher had asked why I signed for Crystal Palace when Everton and Sheffield Wednesday were in for me as well. But I didn’t know, Jock didn’t tell me. “I was negotiating with the Crystal Palace chairman and Jock came in and took me outside. He said, ‘You get in there and f*****g sign or I’ll sit you in the stand for nine months’. So that was that. “It would never happen nowadays as you’ve got agents and some sort of say. With Jock you didn’t have a say. “Don’t get me wrong, I had some great times under him. When he came I played most of the time. It was only latterly things went wrong.” Hughes reckons missing a chance in the 1970 European Cup Final loss to Feyenoord prompted his departure. But he feels Celtic would have won that trophy for the second time in three years if Big Jock hadn’t been complacent about facing the Dutch side. He said: “I missed a chance in the game and feel that is one of the reasons why Stein got rid of me. Why else would he have done it? I was 28 and the sixth highest scorer in the club’s history. “Three months later I got a bad knee injury and never played again. “Jock thought we’d won the trophy after we’d beaten Leeds in the semi-final. We didn’t think that but he did and the atmosphere permeates down from the top. “He thought it’ll be a doddle – we only need to turn up.” Injury had ruled Hughes out of Celtic’s European Cup-winning team of 1967 but he bounced back to form the next season. His stock was high and he was convinced he deserved a pay rise – but Big Jock’s response left him stunned. Yogi said: “I’d had a good season so I went to ask Jock for a wage rise. He said, ‘I know how you feel – you’ve had a terrific season. But I think, just to keep your feet on the ground, we should cut your wages’. “I’d just scored for Scotland against England at Hampden and there I was wondering how I could get back to what I’d been earning when I walked into his office.” Stein died in September 1985 after suffering a heart attack at Cardiff’s Ninian Park seconds after Scotland had drawn 1-1 with Wales to book a World Cup qualifying play-off. Hughes though didn’t go to pay his last respects. He said: “I didn’t go to his funeral. I would have been a hypocrite if I had gone. “He got rid of me when I was in my prime and three months later I was finished at 28. People say to me, ‘Are you bitter?’ Yes. “In the book we’ve tried not to comment. We’ve told people what happened and left them to make their own minds up. “I think I’m the seventh highest goalscorer but had I stayed until I was 32 and kept scoring at the same rate I’d have been third.” http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/john-hughes-lifts-lid-run-ins-3515962

The Blue Order is confirming that we are reluctantly not renewing our season tickets for the 2014/15 season. It is, however, our intention to buy tickets for home and away games on a match-by-match basis so that we can continue to give our full support to our team. Unfortunately, until further notice, we are unable to accommodate any new requests to join TBO or for seat transfers into our section however we would welcome others to congregate with our group in BF5. As part of the Union of Fans umbrella group, TBO have been at the forefront of recent protests against the board and we strongly urge Rangers FC to engage openly with concerned supporters and potential investors to safeguard the club's future.

Due to overwhelming demand we're delighted to announce an additional Tour on Saturday 14th June. Our Tour on Sunday 15th June which is Father's Day is completely sold out. Please note that Tour Gift Vouchers for Dad are available. Tour details are as follows. Join us on a journey of discovery back to 1872 when The Rangers were just the dream of a group of young kids who gathered on Fleshers Haugh. They had no ball, no football kit and used a bush on the green as a changing room. Their Club, which they nurtured, was to become the world?s most successful and it all happened on the streets of Glasgow. Our journey takes us to the area of Fleshers Haugh where The Rangers played their first ever match, we also visit Glassford Street, Union Street, Berkeley Street, Burnbank, Kinning Park, Craigton Cemetery and many other places of interest before finishing off our day with a tour of our magnificent Ibrox Stadium. During our journey we have a 30 minute break at the West of Scotland Cricket Ground in Partick which was the scene of the Rangers first ever Scottish Cup Final in 1877. It gives everyone a chance to unwind, grab a beer or soft drink and a bite to eat at a beautiful and historical setting. Adults : £20.00 Children (under 16) and Senior Citizens £15. Group discounts are available upon request. To reserve your seat just send an email to : thegallantpioneers@googlemail.com For further information phone : 0790 2855536 An insight into our research can be found here on our website. http://www.thegallantpioneers.co.uk/

For your information... Blowing a raspberry at Dave King perhaps?

how many have actually pledged to dave kings scheme and how may season books have actually been sold?

Backed by Dave King, Richard Gough and the Union Of Fans https://www.ibrox1972.co.uk/

We; the Union Bears would like to confirm our current stance with regards to next season and announce that we will not be renewing our tickets. Whilst we would like to have announced this sooner it has not been an easy decision to come to and one which we haven't taken lightly. It has been a painful sacrifice but we hope it proves to be an effective one. We believe we can't continue to put our hard earned money into a club suffering from mismanagement in all areas. We find it very hard to renew with all the uncertainty surrounding the club and don't believe that throwing cash into a financial black hole is the answer. If the situation changes, we will update everyone as soon as we can. But as things stand, the group will NOT be renewing and won't be back in BF1 next season. Thanks for your continued support the last few seasons. UB07

“We note the latest attempt by this board to mislead and hold Rangers fans to ransom. Their latest “give us your money or the seat gets it” ultimatum is just another in a long line of misjudgements this board has made about the mood amongst the support in general. The fact that those now in the crosshairs of this board are a lifelong Rangers fan who has ploughed millions of his own money into the club with no return, an iconic captain from one of the club’s most successful ever periods and a group of Rangers fans attempting to secure the home of our football club, says more about this board than we ever could. There is no attempt to deprive the club of funds. This is made very clear in the security proposal and the board’s ham fisted attempt to misrepresent this is one of the few transparent things they have done since coming to power. No money will be taken from fans unless security is granted and we are of the opinion that the board’s reluctance to discuss granting security may well rapidly change. Our public comments about Mr Wallace are not personal but have been based on his binding pronouncements on matters of huge importance which have been at best misleading, broken promises for engagement with fans, attempts to blame fans for the current precarious position of the club and a complete lack of any progress in bringing much needed investment into the club. We welcome the fact that the entire board have now publicly taken responsibility for all of these actions. Once again we see meaningless sound bites with absolutely no substance to back them up. The result, no doubt, of the expensive PR man hired by this board with more urgency than a Chief Scout. What “significant progress” has been made? How will this “bright future” we are promised come about when the investment committee have failed to secure a single pound of investment? Rangers is certainly “dear to all of us”, the Rangers support. We have no idea why this board would attempt to claim the same when there is not a single fan amongst them. We do not believe that Rangers fans will fall for this again. We’ve seen it far too many times in the past two years. “ - See more at: https://www.ibrox1972.co.uk/statements/#sthash.5zQnzija.oJfk0OFG.dpuf

http://vanguardbears.co.uk/ Evidence-Based Mathematics Written by: Ulster Loyal Wednesday, 7th May 2014 Much has been said and written about the finances of Britain's most successful sporting institution, Rangers Football Club. Speculation over the possibility of a second administration or likely direction of the share price has dominated Rangers based conversations in many a pub and many an internet forum. Not all of these conversations are helpful when they are presented in public, through various media, with no factual substance. They can subsequently cause unnecessary, widespread alarm and subject the club to destabilising influences, such as supporter boycotts and police investigations. The preferred way forward for all supporters should be to thoughtfully and objectively use the available information in Rangers' financial accounts to present a factual representation of our club's current business operations and forecast it's likely success going forward. Mathematics can help us to analyse the prospect of a company entering bankruptcy. On 25th December 2013, the following report was prepared, and posted on the Vanguard Bears forum, regarding the likelihood of Rangers going bankrupt: --- START OF ANALYISIS --- Rangers International Football Club (RIFC) has an Altman Z2-Score of 2.25; a statistical bankruptcy meter generated from a set of balance sheet ratios. Q – Are liquid assets a significant proportion of the assets? A – RISK •Testing: Working Capital/Total Assets > 0.2375 •RIFC Details: Working Capital/Total Assets = 0.018 Q – Do reinvested earnings make up a significant portion of the assets? A – SAFE •Testing: Retained Earnings/Total Assets > -0.1355 •RIFC Details: Retained Earnings/Total Assets = 0.34 Q – Are the assets relatively productive in terms of earnings? A – SAFE •Testing: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets > -0.082 •RIFC Details: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets = 0.019 Q – Does firm value compare favourably to its liabilities? A – RISK •Testing: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities > 1.439 •RIFC Details: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities = 0.89 Regarding the Altman Z2-Score: •Greater than 3.00 = good financial health. •Less than 1.80 = a company is in the distress zone and is in serious financial trouble; the distress zone is 80-90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy. •Rangers' score of 2.25 indicates it is not entirely safe from financial distress and investors should be cautious. --- END OF ANALYSIS --- The problem with supporters warning of the imminent arrival of another financial collapse at Rangers is that they have no statistical analysis to give credibility to their claims. When the share price was at around 33p, it was my opinion, reached using mathematical evidence, that the likely intrinsic value of Rangers was closer to 25.67p. I made similar comments in October 2013 when the share price was around 43p. The following analysis regarding an estimate of the true share price valuation of RIFC was also carried out in December: --- START OF ANALYSIS --- a) Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Method (forward looking growth model): 0p per share; 100% overvalued (due to negative cash flows that are not forecast to increase in the next 8 years). This is based on the following inputs: •The company's sustainable cash flow is -£12.61m (taken as the average between latest free cash flow (-£18.9m) and 3 year average free cash flow (which includes 2 years of £0 due to not having data for those years, making this valuation input more unreliable)) •Expected growth rate of cash flow of 0% for the next 8 years (3 year average cash flow growth, 5 year average cash flow growth, year 1 forecast earnings per share growth and year 2 forecast earnings per share growth are normally added as an input here but that data is not available for Rangers at this stage, making this valuation input more unreliable) •The company should settle into a long term growth rate of 3% (if we don't have reliable forecasts, we default to normal inflation levels and that is what we've done here) •Investors require a return of 15% for the risk they are taking (due to being a small cap company, 9% would be applicable to large cap companies) b) Earnings Power Value Valuation Method (zero growth model based on current earnings): 25.67p per share; 23.4% overvalued. This is based on the following inputs: •Sustainable level of revenue is £19.11m (latest revenue; 3 year average revenue and 12 month rolling forecast revenue is normally included but we don't have these inputs for RIFC, making this valuation input more unreliable) •Across the economic cycle, the operating margin in 7.8% (we normally take an average of a 5-10 year operating margin and a trailing 12 month operating margin but we don't have that data for RIFC, making this valuation input more unreliable) •On average the company see £0m of 'exceptionals' (we normally deduct the long term average of non-recurring charges but we don't have this data for RIFC, making this valuation input more unreliable) •15% of historic selling, general and administrative expense has funded growth (typically 15% to 50% of this is added back to a company's Earnings Power Value to make up for the fact some of that expenditure went towards funding growth as opposed to maintaining the existing asset base; Earnings Power Value only takes into account current earnings and is a zero growth model; we don't have enough data for RIFC on this value so we assume the minimum standard of 15%) •Each year, the company spends -£2.48m on maintenance capital expenditure (capex) (maintenance capex can be calculated by subtracting growth capex from total capex; again, we don't have long term forecasts for this based on historical figures so we are largely estimating these on limited results from the previous earnings report) •Investors require a return of 15% for the risk they are taking (due to being a small cap company, 9% would be applicable to large cap companies) c) "Relative to Sector" Valuation Method: 92.51p per share; 176.2% undervalued Based on the following inputs: When we compare RIFC to the Hotels and Entertainment services sector, we have the following valuation ratios for RIFC: •Price To Book Value: 0.39 • Price To Tangible Book Value: 0.57 • Enterprise Value To Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation: 3.14 • Enterprise Value To Operating Profit: 8.38 • Enterprise Value To Sales: 0.66 By comparison, we have the following corresponding valuation ratios for companies in the Hotels and Entertainment Services sector: •Price To Book Value: 1.95 • Price To Tangible Book Value: 2.19 • Enterprise Value To Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation: 12.7 • Enterprise Value To Operating Profit: 18.3 • Enterprise Value To Sales: 2.10 The Relative To Sector Valuation Method compares RIFC's valuation against the median multiples of the company's sector peer group. d) Net Current Asset Value Valuation Method: 0p per share; 100% overvalued Based on the following inputs: The company's current assets (long term assets are not included) are £16.5m • Cash And Short Term Investments (trailing 12 months) £11.2m •Total Receivables, Net £5.23m •Total Inventory £0.085m •Other Current Assets £0.000m The company's total liabilities are £24.7m • Total Current Liabilities £15.1m •Minority Interests £0.25m •Deferred Tax £7.82m •Total Long Term Debt £0.96m •Total Other Liabilities £0.52m The shares outstanding are 65,095,856m e) Net Working Capital Valuation Method: 0p per share; 100% overvalued Based on the following inputs: •The company's Cash and Short Term Investments are £11.2m • The company's Inventory is £0.085m • The company's Receivables are £5.23m • The company's Total Liabilities are £24.7m • The Shares Outstanding are 65,095,856m f) Tangible Book Value Valuation Method: 59.1p; 76.4% undervalued •The company's Book Value (total assets minus liabilities) is £56.9m • The company's Intangible Assets are £18.4m • The company's Goodwill is £0.000m • The Shares Outstanding are 65,095,856m --- END OF ANALYSIS --- The following commentary from the 10th of January 2014 further explained the information provided on the 25th of December 2013. --- START OF COMMENTARY --- "As you can see there are only three valuation methods that assign a value greater than 0p to Rangers; Earnings Power Value, Tangible Book Value and Relative To Sector. There are only two valuation methods that assign a share price that is higher than the current level of 28.5p. However, investors likely won't use these methods to value Rangers, and inform their investing decisions, for the following reasons, thus eliminating any mathematical reason to think that the current share price is cheap, based on an objective analysis of the company's financial results: Relative To Sector is an unreliable valuation because it compares Rangers to the Hotels and Entertainment Services sector, based on how the stock is classified by the stock market. It would be better to only compare Rangers to other football clubs but there is a shortage of listed football clubs and the sample size would be too small to draw any conclusions. The Tangible Book Value method is good at valuing the club's assets. However, value of assets is very different to the value of the business. If the assets are not generating sufficient income to make a profit, then investors lose confidence in the ability of those assets to generate future growth and profitable cash flows. As a result, the business is worth less to those that may seek to invest in it. If the company is liquidated due to large debts, the investors likely won't see the value of the assets they invested in because shareholders are below creditors in the capital structure of a business. Therefore, an investor does not invest on the basis of the book value of the assets of a company but rather the ability of those assets to generate a return on investment. Now, the only method left that assigns a value to Rangers, and would be a realistic evaluation of the club's true worth as a business, in the opinion of investors (which is largely what dictates the share price), is the Earnings Power Value method. This valuation metric values the club based on current earnings and assumes no growth in the company (which can't be measured anyway due to negative cash flows). It is a realistic valuation because it makes no assumptions about future growth, which can be inaccurate, and is only an analysis of the present situation. According to the Earnings Power Value method, Rangers is valued at 25.67p. Therefore, the current share price of 28.5p is close to being a fair valuation of Rangers. Rather than speculating on boardroom battles and their subsequent effect on the share price, I have simply looked at the value of the business from an objective, mathematical view. In the long term, a company's share price will converge with its Intrinsic Value. It's just mathematics and market forces. The downwards movement in the share price of Rangers comes as no surprise to me." ---END OF COMMENTARY--- The best way to comment on the financial situation at Rangers is by working with the facts, not by letting unfounded allegations cloud your judgement. History will show us which commentary - evidence based mathematics here on Vanguard Bears or the agenda-driven, emotional rhetoric from power-seeking, self-proclaimed fans' representatives - proved to be an accurate account of the financial picture at Rangers. It is now the 7th of May 2014 - Rangers is still operating and the share price is 23.00p.

Andy Little ‏@AndyLittle_7 26s It has been the best 8 yrs of my life. Being a Ranger has been an honour + I'll be one 'til the day I die. Thank you to all at the club.

I'm having a light chat on FB on ex players and their lack of action since admin. So, should they have done more when we went into administration and months afterwards? Some points from me: Bomber got a lot of hassle for speaking up when he did. Okay, he might have lacked the appropriate skills but the message was still there. A portion of the support and past colleagues flung him under a bus IMO. Gough was approached early days in admin to help with SaveRangers and never got involved. I'm willing to move on if he can help with supporters now though. Many players gave interviews with the usual sound bytes but never thought of standing besides the support. March to Hampden is a classic example where Sandy led the support besides influential fans...an excellent opportunity to show unity with the people who adored them but not one stuck their head above the parapet. Disappointing when Sandy and Ally were in the trenches with supporters. Kris Boyd got involved in BuyRangers and certain players walked away in very disappointing circumstances. So, your opinion on the current status of ex players and their actions during and after administration?

http://www.rangers.co.uk/news/headlines/item/6929-club-statement

Richard The Lionheart And Balls Of Steel From The Board Richard-Gough The team that drinks together wins together. A legendary quote attributed to Richard Gough which the former Rangers captain assured me today he didn’t actually say. Gough phoned me to respond to my Balls Of Steel blog and to defend his own part in the Ibrox1972 venture, which I have called a bootleg Rangers.I have to be honest and say that Goughie left me in absolutely no doubt that his intentions are sincere and that he is doing what he is doing for the benefit of Rangers. During our conversation he kept stressing his dismay that the supporters were so divided and it was refreshing to engage with someone in the anti-board camp who is free of the bitterness that is spouted by reb ringleaders. Gough did not at any time during our lengthy conversation say anything derogatory about Rangers directors; in fact, he stressed he was sure that they had Rangers’ interests at heart. I got the impression that his concerns were more about what has taken place over the past three years and the present board’s ability to deal with this than any supposed “****very” in the boardroom. What we both agreed on was that we wanted to see more positive action from the board in response to the club’s present condition. Goughie admitted to me that he wished he had said more in the past, particularly about the Craig Whyte fiasco but agreed with me that many of us were taken in by Whyte because we wanted to believe. As he has said elsewhere, the big man did not hesitate to respond to Dave King’s request that he put his name and reputation behind the season ticket fund. He admits he had no idea what he was getting into or he may have given it a body swerve but with the same steel he displayed as a player and the decision-making that brought him fame and renown as a world-class defender, he said “No, the truth is I had to do it because I felt it had to be done. I just want what’s best for Rangers Football Club.” I again have to be fair and say that it was refreshing to hear Goughie reiterate that fans who want to renew with the club should do so. He claimed that Dave King was just trying to give fans some security as Admin 2 was a real possibility. Cynics may see more to King’s motives than a benevolent interest in fans’ monies and that his actions were designed to bring about Admin rather than avert it. His personal advice, he says, would be for anyone unsure of whether to renew or pledge to Ibrox1972 would be to withhold money from both and pay on a game-to-game basis. I have to say that big Goughie is not a devious person anyway and he is undoubtedly sincere in his concerns and intentions. He is also honest about his own naivety and lack of expertise in the greyer areas of the project he and King are embarked upon. He is not a schemer or a wheeler dealer but I agreed with his summary of things. “Ultimately it will all be decided at shareholder level,” said Gough. As I pointed out, King knows this only too well and his use of fan power is designed to exert leverage on the shareholders. Richard Gough doesn’t seem to share the militancy that King and his UoF supporters have in getting fans to join the fund. His attitude is that it is up to fans to decide. Domiciled abroad, Gough is unsurprisingly out of touch with the mood of fans, especially since David Murray left the scene. But, as I have said previously, he deserves a say in matters Rangers. I don’t agree with his involvement in the Ibrox1972 project. However, I defend his right to have it and appreciate the sincerity of his motives. I also admire his sticking his head above the parapet. As Gough himself says, “When this thing is over, regardless of who wins, there will be people jumping on board the victory train. At least I threw my hat into the ring knowing it wouldn’t be popular with everybody.” One thing Goughie and I agreed upon was the need for positive action from the Rangers board. He alluded to my Balls of Steel blog. Just after our discussion I saw the statement by the Rangers board which was exactly what I called for in yesterday’s blog.

I am a fan and shareholder in the United States. Outside of maybe two trips a year over, I can't see the team play in Ibrox a lot. That being said, I would like to buy 2 season tickets this year to support the Club (and Team) and did not know if there was an organization that I could contract to donate my tickets to each month.

Up on BBC: Rangers' former commercial director Imran Ahmad is to go back to court on Tuesday as he seeks to have more than  £500,000 frozen in the club's account. In February, Lord Tyre disagreed with Ahmad's claim that Rangers were trading while insolvent. Now, with doubts over season ticket sales, Ahmad is concerned about Rangers' ability to pay out should he win his ongoing legal battle with them. The two parties are in dispute over his claim for unpaid bonuses. At the February hearing, Lord Tyre made his decision in Rangers' favour because of what he described as the cyclical nature of a football club's finances. Since then, Rangers have made it clear that a significant drop in season ticket sales would leave them unable to trade without seeking external finance. The chairman of Rangers' football board Sandy Easdale also told BBC Scotland the League One champions are in a "fragile situation". Rangers will again have to satisfy a judge at the Court of Session that they can continue to trade, with the implications of the decision going in Ahmad's favour next week potentially devastating for the board. I reckon he'll get it frozen this time. Wasn't the reason it was declined before because there wasn't enough evidence to say the club was in financial hardship? IMO this is to put pressure on fans to renew season tickets. They are all in it together. How on earth can he get that money ring fenced when the contract he had was pie in the sky ffs..

Is it 1 game in 3 or 4 years? Perhaps it is as a scout because his career ended years ago.