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PoohBear

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Posts posted by PoohBear

  1. Imo it's dangerous to conclude that you know clearly what he did from a couple of "out of context" social media posts or that his wife was coerced into retracting her statement, or paid for it. I'm not sure what the answer is but it's far from a straight forward situation and I'm not convinced that he should be punished for his whole career. 
     

    Note that we have recently had a player on the team who was found guilty of assaulting his partner, and we have also had Gazza on the team who has done god knows how many stupid and awful things. These are difficult situations but I'm not sure calling out Man Utd on this is the right one.

  2. I know there is a crew that loves the mantra winning is enough, but it isn't enough. Because this isn't champions form. We've scraped a win against Greenock Morton. Scraped past Servette (when they played a considerable amount of time with 10 men), and we've lost to Killie since the start of this season. A lot more has to be done before I think we are anywhere near talking about challenging for the title. I don't understand signings like Lammers, 3 years of nothing to show for and we spend millions on him? I can't see how he is anyway better than Hagi. Dessers has a significant amount yo prove as he looks extremely poor currently, obviously I want him to come good but it's the truth. Beale needs to get this team working together quickly.

  3. On 14/08/2023 at 08:11, Rousseau said:

    It's not subjective: they've added up all the times a player actually scored. It's an objective fact. It takes that, to suggest a probability of a player in the same position scoring in the future. 

     

    They take hundreds of thousands of past shots, going back decades, from every conceivable position on the pitch. 

     

    In practice, that means if a chance has 0.2xG, it should be scored 20% of the time, because out of those hundreds of thousands of past shots they've looked at, the player scored 20% of the time. 

     

    They take into account many more variables than just position on the pitch:

    • Distance to the goal
    • Angle to the goal
    • Did the player strike it with his feet or was it a header?
    • In what passage of play did it happen? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick, counter-attack)
    • Has the player just beaten an opponent?

    We do it in our heads all the time, using our judgement and past experience of watching games, when we say, 'that's a sitter - he has to score that'.

     

    The xG tells you how many times players in the past have actually scored from that position - and taking into account all the other variables. 

     

    It's a lot more objective than someone's judgement. Compare how many games an xG model is based on (tens of thousands of matches, hundreds of thousands of shots, going back decades) compared to how many games you or I have watched in our lifetime. It's not even close.

     

    I could watch every single Rangers game in the league, so my judgement on whether a player has missed a sitter is based on 38 games a season. An xG model has covered every match of every single club in the league, and every club in the top 15 (and more) European leagues, going back decades. 

     

    In that way it's objective. There's no subjectivity in it. 

    Sure, but it seems like there are a number of subjective or problematic issues with the system. Has the player just beaten an opponent? That is subjective. Passage of play can be subjective. What about pitch size, number of defenders etc, these all would make a marked difference on Xg, wouldn’t they? I still have a blinding fever, covid is wank.

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