Rousseau

As much as I like seeing certain sides lose, the record of non-Old Firm Scottish sides in Europe is embarrassing. Aberdeen just lost to the second best side in Luxembourg.

I've quite enjoyed the tournament. Yes, some of the games have not been great, but it has been a feast of football. Three games per day? Bliss. And, to witness Wales' journey has been brilliant.

The second Semi-Final tonight should be good, with two of the favourites coming together.

There were points for: onevision, compo, Little General, YB and blueflag; with onevision and compo gaining full points for correclty predicting the 2-0 scoreline!

No change at the top, but the middle order close the gap slightly. Only two games to go!

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We all know the problems, like TB said. I was trying to illustrate the problems and, hopefully, show how the new signings are geared towards solving those problems. They may not be big signings in themselves, but I believe they are astute, in the sense that they are chosen to fit the puzzle.

For all the tactical analysis is very well prepared and written, a blind man could see our problems last year were that our two centre halfs had really poor seasons, and Halliday cannot defend as a defensive midfielder supposedly giving the two bombscares much-needed protection.

 

While I would agree that most of our signings have not got anyone excited, I am far more pleased at the signing of Hill than Rossiter, who has 5 first team games under his belt at 19yo, and who Klopp didnt think enough of to try to keep, even to loan out.

 

If Barton can play the DM role successfully, and we bring in another CH to play alongside Hill, our defensive capabilities will be improved beyond all recognition, even with the same two full backs as while both are more adept at attacking than defending, I have faith that they will do the job fine this year.

Thanks. I was trying to be a little more specific, regarding our problems; not just "Wilson is pish!" -- not that you said that! I agree with everything you've said, though.

I'm frustrated at the ambivalence from some regarding our signings. I agree, that Hill and Barton are what we needed. They -- Barton aside -- may not be the big names we want, but I think they're what we need.

There has been many superlatives bandied about when the Rangers defense is discussed: "terrible", "bomb-scare", "lightweight", and even the more blunt but nonetheless correct, "s****!". There is a perception that our offensive philosophy leaves us exposed at the back, most commonly on the counter; add to that poor organisation in certain situations, namely corners, one gets a good impression of our defensive frailties. It has been the most prominent flaw, in what has been a stellar start to Warburton's reign.

However, the facts suggest that this is not entirely true; while we do get caught on the counter, we're generally not punished as much as one would expect. In our run to the Scottish Cup final, where we arguably faced our biggest tests, we conceded a total of 7 goals in 6 games. The breakdown of goals conceded makes for interesting, if not too surprising, reading:

Over the 6 games, no goals were conceded from counter-attacks, contrary to the general perception. The Free-kick (conceded against Cowdenbeath) can be marked down as a fluke, or a moment of skill if you're that way inclined. Our biggest problems came from Corners and Midfield Penetration (where we are in our defensive structure, but the opposition have managed to get through it).

The first instance of Midfield Penetration came against Celtic in the Semi-Final. The image above shows an approximation of player positions in the build-up to the goal. Rangers line-up in a 4-3-3, with Celtic in their normal 4-2-3-1. The Rangers 'back-four' were set up zonally -- Tavernier taking a 'benny', aside -- with the midfield taking up man-to-man positions: Wallace, Wilson, Kiernan are lined-up well, structurally, with Tavernier pushing out to close the ball-player, before the ball is passed wide to the LB; Halliday, Zelalem, Holt and McKay are tight-ish to their men, with Law (playing RW, after coming on for Shiels) closing down the LB.

Tavernier is out of position, but ironically gets back in time to potentially cover the attack. The Celtic LB, Tierney, runs past Law and Tavernier, beating them one-on-one -- or, embarrassingly, one-on-two -- and cuts the ball back. Halliday doesn't keep tight to his man, Rogic (AM), and the Australian is left open to slot the ball into the net. The issue is poor man-to-man marking and a lack of concentration.

The second instance of Midfield Penetration was against Hibs in the Final. The image above shows an approximation of player positions in the build-up to the goal. Hibs lined-up with a 3-5-2, with Rangers in the usual 4-3-3. Again, the Rangers 'back-four' line-up zonally, with the midfielders taking up man-to-man positions: again, Wallace, Wilson and Kiernan are solid, structurally, with Tavernier pushing forward to man-mark the LCM (McGinn); Halliday, Zelalem and Holt are very tight to their men.

From this throw-in, the Hibs LWB is able to lob a ball to the LCM, who is relatively open as Tavernier is not close enough -- Waghorn is expected to mark the LWB in this instance, but could cover. Again, ironically, Tavernier still gets close enough to snuff out an attack when the LCM receives the ball, but both he and Halliday (who leaves his man) fail to win the ball. From this scrappy situation the ball finds it's way to Stokes (LF) on the left. With Tavernier covering the LCM, Kiernan covers Stokes. Unfortunately, Kiernan doesn't make a tackle, or keep him wide, but allows Stokes to run into the box, scoring a silly goal. Again, the issue is poor man-to-man marking and poor concentration/decision-making.

The man-marking from the midfield and Wide-Forwards (the pressing game) works well as it allows us to cover/mark all the potential passing options, and creates the potential to steal the ball. It also forces opponents into mistakes, and allows a greater chance of Rangers recovering the ball -- of course, it requires good execution.

There was one instance of a Long-Ball. During the Kilmarnock game, a long ball was lumped up-field by their Goalkeeper, and a 50/50 aerial duel is not won properly by Wilson; the ball falls to McKenzie in-behind our midfield, and he proceeds to utilise the space by curling the ball into the net. Physicality in the air to win aerial duels, and defensive organisation to cover when we don't, is needed in this situation.

These issues are even more prevalent at corners. Three goals were conceded at corners over the 6 matches; one against Celtic and the other two against Hibs in the Final. A inability to track runners, and failures to win aerial battles when we do, have allowed opponents back into games when they have not even had a sniff of ball.

We've long been crying out for defensive acquisitions, both to add competition to a thread-bare defense -- no cover at full-back was a real issue throughout -- and to add quality. The names of potential targets and players signed thus far (Joey Barton and Jordan Rossiter aside) have been met with ambivalence, and downright scorn. But, it can be argued that our defensive targets are perfectly suited to solving many of the defensive frailties laid bare last season.

The issues outlined in the examples above are: a failure to man-mark effectively, a lack of concentration, an inability to track runners consistently, a failure to win our fair share of aerial duels and a lack of defensive organisation. These issues will only get more pronounced in the Premiership if they are not corrected.

Right away, the acquisition of Barton solves many of those problems. Will Barton lose many man-marking situations? No. Will he allow others to shirk responsibility and lose concentration? No. Will he lose an aerial duel? No. He's not going to win every one-on-one or aerial duel, but it appears Barton will go a long way to solving most of these these issues; most importantly, it looks like he will take charge of any organisational duties.

Even the more "disappointing" acquisition, Clint Hill, looks to strengthening our defensive frailties. At 37 he comes with bags of experience, and is strong in the air. His age may be a issue, but he has been a consistent performer at Premier League and Championship level. Again, he doesn't look likely to lose aerial battles, nor does it look like he'll shirk responsibility at corners etc.. We have two leaders, which can only be a good thing for our younger, more inexperienced players.

Even Oguchi Onyewu potentially solves our problems. A name that few are excited about, but he could do a job. At 6ft 4ins, he's not going to lose many aerial duels, and at 34 he has bags of experience. It is unlikely that Warburton would ever (hypothetically, for Onyewu has not signed and it's not known if he will) line up with Hill and Onyewu, as he likes a ball-playing centre-back; from that, it's easy to imagine them coming in and out of the team, easing themselves, and us, through the long, hard season. If they can be purchased on favourable deals, then they can surely play their part?

Our defensive frailties are clear for all to see: defensively unorganised at times, a lack concentration and an inability to win the majority of aerial duels. While it's easy to be dismissive of some of our signings thus far, or any potential signings, it is clear that Warburton knows what he needs to improve in our team. It's easy to forget that our team is still very young, with the majority under 25; even one of our most experienced players, Wallace, is only 28. Barton and Hill bring experience and leadership, qualities that will go a long way to solving our defensive frailties.

Portugal 1 Wales 1

 

Germany 1 France 1

You'd already predicted!? No?

Final bump! You have until 20:00 tonight!

We're just waiting on Trublusince1982 -- of the regulars anyway.

Portugal 1 - 1 Wales

Germany 2 - 1 France

I'll just keep it as is. Thanks for your input!

The extra point for predicting the penalty shoot-out winner would've been a good addition -- something to think about for WC'18?

I was trying to 'jazz' it up a little, as I felt it had grown a little stale.

The games will be even more difficult to predict (Germany - France, anyone?), so we could see more of a split in predictions; double points could've have made it interesting. Of course, if someone is predicting strategically, it'll not make any difference...

Fair enough. I'll keep it as is.

(That was a quick debate...)

Please post your predictions for the Semi-Finals.

The fixtures are:

Portugal - Wales

Germany - France

You have until 20:00 on Wednesday 6th July to make your predictions.

Correct Result and Correct Score will be determined at the end of normal match play (90 MINS + Extra Time). Penalty results will not be considered when calculating the points scored.

Would players be amenable to the introduction of double points for the Semi-Finals and Final?

The majority gained a point for the France win, but, as expected, no one gained full points as a result of the unusually high score.

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Clint Hill adds a reasonable physical presence, professional attitude and experience and has played at a very decent level.

 

On the face of it (without too much knowledge on him), I'd prefer the lad from Watford to compliment Hill.

Oh, so would I, but I was just saying I wouldn't mind getting Onyewu -- even on a pay-as-you-play deal.

I'd take a chance on Onyewu. He's played at a high level, and has that physical presence that we've lacked. His career has been blighted by injuries, but if we can get a season or two out of him then I think that would be good business.

There is some movement in the top-half of the table, but the majority failed to gain any points. Cooponthewing, Little General, YB, blueflag and Pete gain 1 point for correctly predicting the draw; but Little General, blueflag and Pete get full points for correctly predicting the 1-1 scoreline (AET).

blueflag and Pete close the gap at the top.

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After getting the sack from his first job in coaching with Arezzo, Antonio Conte wasn’t about to sit around and feel sorry for himself. Instead he vowed to put his time out of work to good use. His self-improvement drive moved up a gear. Conte sought to broaden his mind and booked a trip to Holland, knowingly following in the footsteps of Arrigo Sacchi.

A request to watch Ajax train was gratefully accepted. However, the team Conte most looked forward to observing up close and personal was AZ Alkmaar. They were the Dutch champions at the time and were coached by Louis van Gaal, “a football maestro.” So one day Conte drove to Alkmaar with Betta, his wife. The session was open to the public and when it finished he contemplated introducing himself to van Gaal.

But Conte’s timidness got the better of him. When he came back the following day, AZ were training behind closed doors. Undeterred Conte still tried to get in. As he did so, he felt a tap on his shoulder. Initially Conte didn’t turn around because he thought it was Betta.

Instead it turned out to be “Ronald Koeman’s evil twin,” a security guard working for the club. “Are you spying on Mister van Gaal?” he asked. It was at this stage, as he fumbled for a response, that Conte resolved to work on his English.

Another valuable lesson learned from that experience was to closely guard your secrets. For a master strategist like Conte, it is one he has taken to heart as anyone who has visited Montpellier’s Roland Gasset training ground over the last month will no doubt be aware.

Rings of barbed wire run along the walls. Security guards patrol the perimeter with muzzled Rottweilers. There are police cars parked on standby. The uninitiated could be forgiven for thinking it is a high security prison or even that a head of state is in residence.

No outsiders are permitted entry, apart from one. “Conte allows me to watch training,” revealed Montpellier President Louis Nicollin. “I mean, I do own the training ground. But he shouldn’t worry. I won’t say anything to anyone.” He better not. Conte takes industrial espionage very seriously.

His decision not to train at the Stade des Lumières the night before the Belgium game, instead choosing to stay in Montpellier and practice there on the morning of the game and then travel was put down to fear of giving too much away. Conte denied it. “I am not afraid of spies,” he insisted.

There are patterns of play that any opposition analyst worth their salt will have picked up on in this Italy team. For instance, they line up in a 3-5-2. Without the ball, though, it evolves to 4-4-2 and with it, it changes to 3-3-4.

“Your system is the most complicated for a team that wants to press high,” Xavi told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “When Italy play out from the back they have got three centre-backs and two wide players. That’s five possible ball carriers and it becomes difficult to press as Spain would like.

Then playing with two strikers also complicates matters because both of them occupy the centre-backs and one of the full-backs has to push up and close down Candreva or Florenzi so you find yourself playing a back three as well. It forces you to change system and adapt to your opponent and that’s when things become difficult.”

Opponents should be aware by now of how Italy escape the press. Conte has a number of solutions. First they often bypass the midfield altogether and play it straight to Graziano Pellè, who likes to either hold it up for a midfield runner or send it out-wide to a wing-back.

Second, in cases when Leo Bonucci and Daniele De Rossi are man-marked, Giorgio Chiellini or Andrea Barzagli go to the wing-backs. This happened a lot against Spain. Chiellini had more touches and made more passes than any of his teammates.

If you sit back and stand off Italy and let Bonucci, in particular, play there is always the risk he will punish you with a ball over the top. Emanuele Giaccherini’s goal against Belgium is a case in point. It’s a well-rehearsed routine. Italy’s wing-backs occupy the full-backs and draw them as wide as they can. The strikers, meanwhile, get busy occupying the centre-backs. Gaping holes now appear in the defence for a midfield runner, released by Bonucci, to dash into. It’s a Conte classic.

All of this should of course be nothing new to Joachim Löw. The trouble is, with Conte, that’s not all. Maintaining the element of surprise is everything to him and explains the lockdown in Montpellier. Tactics have added immense value to this modestly talented Italy squad.

They have allowed them to overcome their limits and become greater than the sum of their parts. Keeping them strictly for the Azzurri’s eyes only is paramount. Come kick off on Saturday, Löw will have to have his wits about him. He was out-coached by Cesare Prandelli four years ago and now faces an even more formidable schemer.

Weaknesses in his team will have been identified by Conte. The video and data analysis done by his staff, in particular Antonio Gagliardi, is believed to have found three areas which Italy are likely to concentrate on. The first is Toni Kroos.

Real Madrid’s Champions League winning playmaker is Germany’s architect in midfield. He has averaged 130 touches per game and one can imagine Conte asking Pellè to carry out the same job on Kroos as he did on Sergio Busquets against Spain.

It has also been noticed that Kroos leans more one way than the other. Fifty eight per cent of his passes are either to the left [40 percent] or through the middle [18 percent]. So making Kroos play where he is less comfortable might be an idea.

The emphasis on building attacks down the left where Jonas Hector likes to get forward in support of Julian Draxler also highlights where Germany leave themselves vulnerable. Poland focused 44 percent of their play down that flank.

Curiously, the Poles managed to do more with less on the other side. That was where they where able to get their shots off. Isolating Joshua Kimmich and taking advantage of the 21-year-old’s inexperience and unfamiliarity with playing right-back brought them some joy. On average, he has lost the ball 17 times a game and doesn’t match up well with a reborn Mattia De Sciglio in the air and on the ground.

How Germany cope in general with the intensity of Italy’s hustle is another thing. Sami Khedira’s legs have looked heavy so far. His opposite number Giaccherini has by contrast run like the wind, establishing a tournament record for ground covered [12.97km] against Spain. This in a team that has clocked up more kilometres than any other in France and by some distance.

Urs Siegenthaler, Germany’s chief scout, has already been given the run around. He cycled out of their Evian training base this week after sightings of a man up on a hill, taking cover in the bushes, apparently surveilling one of their set-piece sessions. The assumption was Conte had sent one of his agents on a reconnaissance mission.

But all spycatcher Siegenthaler found in the end was a fellow German. By now there can’t be much more intelligence gathering left to do and when training finishes today, Conte could always retire to the library in Italy’s Montpellier hotel for some light reading. The Italian press corp have noticed it holds a copy of Sun Tzu’s Art of War. “I’ve read it,” Conte said. It presumably has nothing on his battle plan for Germany.

http://www.gazzettaworld.com/features/chelsea-on-to-a-winner-as-conte-plots-germany-downfall/?utm_content=buffer6cebd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer&refresh_ce-cp

While it was a great piece of skill and goal last night from R-K, anytime I seen him play at league level he looks pish. There is a reason he is out of contract and nobody has snapped him up, and while that performance will see him get a few offers, consistency is what we need and this lad doesnt offer it.

To be fair, I think he's been playing as a winger for his clubs, but as a striker for Wales. He needs a club that plays like Wales.

I just goes to show how different player looks in different systems.

It's being reported that De Rossi is unfit and we know that Motta (his natural deputy) is suspended and that would seem to be a significant blow to the Italians whilst the Germans are at full strength.

 

I don't think the Italians will be able to bully and press the Germans like they did a Spanish team with no real fight, so you'd imagine a lot will depend on the usually miserly Juventus defence and it's ability to frustrate the Germans.

 

Defensive organisation

Germans haven't conceded a goal at the tournament whilst the Italians have only conceded one (when they weren't at full strength against Ireland).

Candreva is still out too. The Italians don't really have a like-for-like replacement for De Rossi and Motta, so that, like you say, could be an issue. I have no doubt they'll be well-prepared and well-drilled.

It'll be interesting to see what the Germans do, regarding strikers. They have played a false-nine in the earlier games and then went with a natural 9 in Gomez for the last two, I believe. A natural 9 will be easy fodder for the Italian back-three; they'll relish the physical battle. A false-nine may pose more problems for the Italians? Who knows? It is really interesting.

The Germany-Italy game looks really interesting -- I'm salivating thinking about it! We have two tournament powerhouses. Germany are undoubtedly the favourites, but Italy have been tactically superb throughout, so it's not a sure thing.

What a performance from Wales! As much as we are all delighted, I'm sure, for Wales, unfortunately their win completely screwed our predictions. In fact only BEARGER and gunslinger gained points for this game, correctly predicting the Wales win; no one gained full points.

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Warburton is pretty much echoing every single fan here. It's good to hear.

You have got this spot on. Man City have only "bought" these players to get them off the wage bill at Melbourne. This type of stuff is exactly why there should be absolutely no dual ownership of football teams worldwide.

In principle, absolutely. In this case? It really doesn't matter too much as it's not as if they will ever play each other in a competitive match. It is unfair on the other A-League sides, however.